8 startup and tech events worth attending
If you’re a startup or scale up founder, or if you are working up to launching your idea, events can be useful to see how others do or dit it. It’s useful to see what worked and what didn’t for successful entrepreneurs, how they think, their approach to business.
It can take a lot of time and energy to attend business events, and the gains aren’t always immediate, but success doesn’t happen in isolation – entrepreneurs need a certain vibe and energy to keep going, they need networks, need to be connected to their markets, their competitors and their peers.
I go to a few events every year, and I choose those where I am likely to see new ideas put into action, meet smart people and explore different sectors. I do focus on my key areas (property, fintech and medtech), but I keep my eyes open for what’s going on outside of there areas too. So here is what’s on my list currently.
- Central European Startup Awards – happening this week in Bucharest!
Conflicting agendas mean that unfortunately I’m not going, but I’ll follow it with interest.
This is a regional program run by the Global Startup Awards. In Romania they’ve partnered with Impact Hub, one of the biggest co-working spaces and entrepreneur networking platforms. Annually, they select and award startups in tech / web industries. After the national phase of Central European Startup Awards competition, the winners of each of the 10 countries (Austria, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Romania, Bulgaria, Serbia, Croatia, Slovenia and Hungary) participate in a regional competition, whose winners are announced on November 21st in Bucharest.
2. Disrupt Berlin – 11-12 December, Berlin, Germany
Organised by TechCrunch, Disrupt Berlin showcases emerging trends in the business of technology and is a great place to meet or find information about game-changing founders, startups and technologies.
There are a multitude of conferences, workshops, networking opportunities and companies from all aspects of tech, but focused in on several category tracks. I’m looking this year at Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning, BioTech/HealthTech, Blockchain and FinTech, but there are a few others.
3. Bucharest Tech Week – May 2020, Bucharest, Romania
5 days of conferences hosting international & local speakers, and a B2C gadgets and tech expo. Conferences are focused on innovation (seems to be an umbrella theme, which can fit anything these days though), HR, some coding conferences but also Fintech.
4. Wearable Europe – 13 – 14 May 2020, Berlin, Germany
Conference and exhibition focusing on wearable technologies, applications, and their commercialisation progress. The conference is part of the IDTechEx Show, a series of synergistic events on Printed Electronics, wearable, sensors, IoT, graphene & 2D materials, energy storage, electric vehicles.
5. EU-Startups Summit – 28-29 May, Barcelona, Spain
Some of Europe’s hottest startups and successful European entrepreneurs – over 1,500 founders, startup enthusiasts, corporates, angel investors, VCs, and media from across Europe. The two-day event is a great opportunity for networking, and a meeting point for aspiring entrepreneurs and investors who are aiming to build international tech companies.
6. London Tech Week – 8-12 June 2020, London, UK
A 5 day technology and innovation marathon, with events on connecting global markets, cybersecurity, digital transformation and innovation, for startups and scaleups.
7. Webit Festival Europe – 17-20 June 2020, Valencia, Spain
A huge event, Webit is a B2B and B2C festival and tech fiesta: 15.000 delegates, 450 speakers, 1,500 selected startups, 500 investors, international media.
With specialised summits for many verticals, I particularly am interested in the summits for health, fintech and blockchain. Other summits focus on cybersecurity, mobility, growth, future of food, or digital entertainment & media.
8. Techsylvania – 20-23 June 2020, Cluj, Romania
One of the biggest tech events in CEE, Techsylvania has tens of events, workshops, keynote speakers and panels. It can be very informative and great for networking and for benchmarking ideas, because it has almost 4.000 attendees – engineers, founders, investors, executives and CEOs of IT & digital companies, banks and startups.
There is a startup competition at Techsylvania too, Startup Avalanche, for early-stage startups, which get to meet international VCs and investors as they compete for the Grand Prize – €100,000 investment.
After a mixed Q1 earnings performance (see my previous blog post) in which I predicted and, eventually, saw most economy sectors under-performing up to the brink of bankruptcy (with famous „victims” such as Hertz International or LATAM Airlines), and the sheer rise to stardom of „work-from-home” sweethearts Zoom, Microsoft Teams, Slack, it’s easy to say that the Corona pandemic took a carefully selected toll on the business world.
As previously predicted, the superstars of Q1 have been the technology behemoths, starting with the FAANG group (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, and Alphabet) and continuing with the fresh princes: Zoom, Slack and other collaborative tech companies.
I already mentioned in my previous analysis that, even though Q1 has been very good for business for the companies above, Q2 will not be so generous. More and more people find themselves out of a job, companies close or at least reduce volume, investment budgets disappear, research and development go bust, and consumers become more and more selective with their cash.
Macroeconomic data, in the US and elsewhere, fully supports the statement above and paints a very grim picture: US unemployment close to 25% (that’s more than 40 million people having no other choice but to apply for government help), a GDP drawdown of 34% according to analysts at Goldman Sachs.
It’s a dire future they predict, and it could get nasty for most S&P members. According to a research paper from factset.com, for Q2 2020, the estimated earnings decline for the S&P500 is 43.4%.
If 43.4% is the actual decline for the quarter, it will mark the most significant year-on-year decline in earnings reported by the index since Q42008 (-69.1%). On a per-share basis, estimated earnings for the second quarter have decreased by 35.9% since March 31st.
*image source: factset.com
I see most, if not all, market sectors dropping in terms of revenue, earnings per share, target prices, P/E ratios. In part, due to the global exposure most of them have which brings more considerable influence, and from Covid-19 induced crisis but also because there’s no winner when everybody’s worrying for tomorrow.
In an interconnected global economy, there can no longer be a superhero company floating above all else; we’re all in the same predicament.
Murdered by numbers
Don’t let yourselves be fooled by the YTD performance of US indices:
- NASDAQ – 9814 points ~13% YTD
- S&P – 3193 points ~2% YTD
- DJIA – 27110 points ~-2% YTD
*image source: Yahoo Finance
By looking at the figures above, one might think the markets are all but immune to the effects of the pandemic over the real economy. It’s my firm opinion that the fairytale in which the markets are living right now is soon to end, more precisely, with the Q2 earnings releases.
In terms of business sectors, I prefer to focus on a 4-pillar aggregate:
- Cyber-security companies
- Collaboration & conferencing products
- FAANG companies
- Automation companies
Here’s my vision over these diverse and peculiar sectors and how I see the performance on Q2 earnings:
*forecasts from money.cnn.com & TipRanks
This is not a place for the giving or receiving of financial advice, advice concerning investment decisions or tax or legal advice. This is being based on personal opinion and experience and it should not be considered professional financial investment advice.
Take into consideration that most target prices from the table above are on the optimistic side as pundits, experts, and analysts are always considering the “market sentiment” in their thought process, and the overall feeling of the market right now is one of “immunity” to the effects of the pandemic.
Delving deeper into the core of the problem, I say the economy is not reflected in the equity markets, and there’s been a division between market sentiment and market performance.
In times of uncertainty and crisis, people and markets alike return to the basics, which, in capital markets, boils down to coming back to the fundamentals. Caution is the word of the times, and this caution, combined with the weaker financial performances of global equities, will push the markets lower - the general decrease in prices will come.
I've always put my money where my mouth is; this is why I'm all-in shorting the markets until the end of the year. When life gives you lemons, you make lemonade. When, in turn, it gives you a discount, you buy full-on, pedal to the metal. Because it's smarter to ride the wave and not go against the giants of the global economy: USA, I guess 😊 & China
Sit tight, prepare yourselves and your investment portfolios for big moves, and stay calm – these are the steps I’m taking and have proven to be the right ones in 2008 and any other crisis before and after.
Wall Street was preparing itself for a terrible earnings season.
It’s not all bad news
The negative influence of the Covid-19 pandemic has been deemed to be anything between dire and desperate. And, for most, this already is, and will surely be, the case.
The exceptions are, by proper definition, exceptional. I'm talking by bigger-than-Earth companies, enterprises with revenues more massive than most countries' GDPs, behemoths in their own right: most, if not all, from the tech sector: Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Facebook, Apple.
For them, the lockdown, the social distancing, the increased online presence, the overall feeling of insecurity, fear, anxiety, and maybe even boredom is yet another reason for people to use their services and, all in all, for them to generate more revenues from their core, and secondary, and tertiary businesses.
Tech sector breaking records
It might be Wall Street's worst-kept secret that the tech sector is, and has been for at least the last decade, on everybody's lips, in everybody's mind and, sooner rather than later, in everybody's investment portfolio. And by everybody, I mean all social classes, all levels of interest towards capital markets: from your hairdresser to Warren Buffett's humongous investment conglomerate.
The reason for this is simple: if you'd have invested $1,000 in Google stock ten years ago, you would've yielded a hefty 475% return, 590% for Microsoft, 1,700% for Amazon, 1,000% for Apple, and 550% for Facebook.
image source: cnbc.com
They're all rocket ships on their way to trillion-dollar market capitalizations (the Trillion Dollar club already includes Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet). And there's not much that can stop them. At least not yet. Not in the first quarter, not by the Coronavirus, not even the containment measures.
Their earnings for the first quarter looked better than expected, and, for sure, better than those from any other market sector, be it retail, banking, automotive, travel & tourism, or commerce.
*special mention for Tesla
Its stock price marked an astounding 3,500% return on the last decade. Although it’s seen a slight decline in the past months, it’s still reaching for higher highs and will, according to most market analysts, reach and top the historical max value of $917/stock.
Long term forecasts for TSLA stock price are close to $1,100, according to CNNMoney, which means an additional 35% ROI from current stock prices.
I’ve included Tesla here because the behavior of the company, and implicitly, of the stock, mimics those of tech companies, not of automakers. They’re constantly innovating in terms of business, budgeting, marketing and financial positioning and I see them being one of the top performers of this decade, as well.
image source: cnbc.com
*special mention for Zoom
What else is there to say about Zoom apart from the fact that, taking full advantage of the unconventional ways of doing business brought up by the pandemic, it exceeded 300 million daily meeting participants, up from last December's total of 10 million. That’s a remarkable 3000% jump.
Analysts at seekingalpha recommend Zoom as being a “buy and hold” stock for the long run. CNNMoney see Zoom’s stock reaching $200 – a potential increase of 20% from present day prices.
EARTH 2.0 – the mandatory condition to digitalize businesses and embrace and prepare for the future. Today. All companies below are prime exponents for this business model, and it paid beautifully until now. Just as the Industrial Revolution rearranged the balance of powers almost 2 centuries ago, we are witnessing history in the making with the current the Technological Revolution:
- Alphabet (mother company of Google): revenue of $41.2 Billion (13% higher than the previous year)
- Facebook: revenue of $17.7 Billion (18% higher than the past year)
- Amazon: almost $76 Billion in revenue deriving from an 18% increase in international sales
- Microsoft: revenue of over $35 Billion, extremely positive outlook on the medium and long term
*Tesla: not much in terms of revenue, but a substantial ascending stock trend (it rose more than 200% in 2019)
*Zoom: 12% share increase after revenue more than doubled in the quarter
A stubborn, poorly adapted, conventional business model is, and has always been a recipe for disaster. On all accounts, Microsoft should have been on the losing side of things, if it weren’t for Satya Nadella, the CEO who brought openness and collaboration to what is once was a sinking ship.
Comparing well-established enterprises with the tech cousins from above:
- JP Morgan – profits dove 69%
- Bank of America – profits plummeted 45%
- McDonald's – earnings fell 17%
- Exxon – 7% stock decrease on account of weak earnings
- Boeing - $649 million loss, 10% workforce dismissed, revenue down 26%
- Ford - $632 million loss, 15% slid in revenue, shares dropped 42% this year
- General Motors – 87% decrease in income compared to Q1 2019, 6.2% decline in revenue
The gap between winners and losers grows more profound for now.
It's my undivided opinion that all four major tech players that right now are laughing all the way to the bank will have to turn their smiles into frowns once Q2 earnings are released. They took advantage until now from the increase in the cloud business and the work-from-home movement.
But the economy forgives and forgets no one – in the USA alone, more than 30 million people filed for unemployment benefits in the last seven weeks, and the future does not look too rosy for the job sector.
No matter how much money the Fed might helicopter-throw unto the economy, the consumers are scared, cautious with their finances, and, in some cases, even hungry.
In these circumstances I see the Q1 earnings success for the tech giants is a temporary victory. I firmly believe they will be caught from behind by the huge wave that already smashed retail, banking, services, commerce, oil, entertainment, or travel.
The future is grim
Q2 earnings will be an eye-opener for all market optimists across the board.
Goldman Sachs expects a US GDP contraction of 34%, unemployment soaring to 15% - no happy-end is in sight.
US retailers are stopping payment to hundreds of thousands of workers in a desperate struggle to cope with the slump in demand, the four rounds of economic stimulus from the Fed seem to make little to no difference until now.
On the long run, in an inter-connected global economy, everybody's in the same boat: decrease in consumption and demand from commerce and retail brings lower ad revenue for Google, which in turn brings down the cloud business revenues, which in turn influences the hardware demand, which in turn affects producers…and so on. The cycle cannot be broken without every integral part being affected.
Turn coal into diamonds
Provided the virus is ephemeral, maybe even more or less contained in Q2, the global economy might start to pick-up and rise from its ashes in the second half of 2020.
As always, being in close touch with the state of affairs, being up to date with the news, keeping your head clear and thinking straight on how to turn this fallout into an opportunity is the best advice I can give you.
The harder the containment measures strike, the bigger the economic shock, the larger the recession that will entail, and the more considerable the investing opportunity!
It's challenging to keep your cool now, but I'm confident that those who adapt, those who look for alternative investment means (be it art or safe-haven assets such as gold or platinum or even fintech companies) will enjoy one hell of a ride.
I’ve split the final chapter into two categories: my personal vision and my professional endeavor.
I’m an investor myself and I see this crisis as an opportunity to short the market on businesses that have not yet adapted to the new world and, in order to practice what I preach, buy Tech Companies (F.A.N.G.) for the long run.
Protect my businesses and my employees; the measures I already took (work-from-home for 99% of my workforce, consolidation measures for capital flow, redirecting of investment flows, budget reframing, alternative investment areas, enforcing my business' technology core) will continue to prove successful and inspired.
Even though we’re constantly expanding, having more than 250 employees all over the world, I want to continue behaving and acting just as a start-up; I see in this the right way to consolidate our position, and conquer new markets and alternate areas of investments.